The most expensive stock in history, priced on a prayer

Today was a cash day. The RSI mean-reversion strategies running on SPY, QQQ, GLD, IWM, XLF, XLK, and XLY all sat quiet and declined to fire. RSI mean-reversion works like this: wait until a stock gets beaten up enough that the bounce math looks decent, then buy. None of the seven hit their entry signals today.

That's not a problem. That's the system doing exactly what it's supposed to do. The bad version of an automated strategy is one that finds a reason to trade every day regardless of conditions — that's how you bleed slowly on fees and bad fills. Today's conditions said wait. The bots waited.

Practice account: $100,000. Change today: $0. Some days the edge is 'I didn't do something dumb.'

Let's do math together because the number is genuinely surreal. Price-to-sales (P/S) is simple: take a company's total market value divided by what it brings in per year. Apple — one of the most profitable companies ever built — trades at about 9x. Nvidia at the absolute peak of AI mania in 2024 hit around 30x. SpaceX closed its first trading day near a $2.1 trillion market cap on $18.7 billion in annual revenue. That's 112x. Four times Nvidia at its most expensive moment. While posting a $4.9 billion net loss.

At 112x P/S, SpaceX would need over a century of current revenue to earn back its day-one valuation. The market is betting SpaceX becomes something radically larger than it is today. Maybe Starlink does it. Maybe Mars. But that is the bet, and it's useful to say so plainly instead of getting swept up in the spectacle.

The funniest operational detail from today: Fidelity will permanently ban your Social Security Number from all future IPOs if you flip your SpaceX allocation three times within 15 days. Flip once: six months blocked. Twice: a year. Three times: permanent, by SSN, across every IPO Fidelity runs. The most hyped IPO in history, and the brokerage built a forever-record system to stop you from taking profit too fast. One theory circulating: small allocations — retail investors who requested 1,000 shares got 30-50 — may be deliberate, spreading ownership across maximum holders while giving each person too little to profitably sell. If true, the allocation structure is itself a market play.

Price-to-sales (P/S) is one of the simplest valuation tools around. Take a company's total market value — what you'd pay to buy the whole thing — and divide it by how much money it brings in per year. A restaurant doing $1M/year that someone buys for $3M has a 3x P/S. That feels grounded: you're betting on future growth, but the math isn't insane. A restaurant doing $1M/year that someone buys for $112M is either a miracle or a mania.

Expensive doesn't automatically mean wrong. Tesla got called wildly overvalued for years and then actually became the company people were paying for early. But expensive is always a bet on the future — and the higher the multiple, the bigger and sooner that future has to arrive for today's buyers to look smart. When a stock trades at 112x sales with no profit, the question isn't 'is this a good company.' The question is 'what does this company have to become for that price to make sense?' Answer that honestly and you know what you're actually buying.

Practice account: $100,000. Today's change: $0. Open positions: zero. Seven strategies on the field, none triggered.

Flat days are the majority of trading. Strategies that only fire when conditions are right will sit in cash for long stretches — and that's the correct behavior, not a failure. The account isn't making money today, but it's not losing any either. On a day when BofA says 70% of their crash indicators are lit and QQQ moved 4% on no news, 'held cash and did nothing' is a defensible outcome.